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‘Peak fear’ but on-chain stats say it’s not a bear market

Bitcoin analyst and co-founder of software company Hypersheet Willy Woo believes that on-chain stats show that BTC is not in a bear market, despite observing “peak fear” levels. Speaking on the What Bitcoin Did podcast hosted by Peter McCormack on Jan. 30, Woo cited key stats such as a high number of long-term holders (wallets held for five months or more) and growing accumulation rates suggesting the market has not flipped its move into bear territory. : “Structurally on-chain, it’s not a bear market setup. Even though I would say we are at the height of fear. No doubt about it, people are really scared, which is typical […] an opportunity to buy.” I think BTC has been in demand lately — Willy Woo (@woonomic) Jan 29, 2022 In the short term, Woo noted that “this kind of relapse doesn’t happen often without bouncing relief” and that a potential capitulation of up to $20,000 doesn’t seem feasible, as it would replicate the 2018 crash in a bear market in just three months instead of a year. The price of BTC is down about 44% since its all-time high of $69,000 in November, with the analyst citing institutional futures trading as a major reason behind this steady decline and flat performance over the past three months. Woo suggested that the increasing influx of mainstream traders and the rollout of BTC futures markets in recent years has significantly changed BTC’s market structure, in which price correlates directly with “risk-on-risk-off from macro traders looking at traditional stocks” You know in 2019 to 2020 if you looked in the chain at what the investors were doing they piled up but you just couldn’t see any effect of the price because the price was really being dictated by traders on the futures exchanges ,” he said. The analyst cited a large number of long-term hodlers that haven’t sold in more than five months, traders that stopped selling around the $40,000 region, along with steady accumulation as the top reasons to remain optimistic. Related: Bitcoin Price Approaching $40K, But Professional Traders Still Skeptical “Most Coins Have Been There For Over Five Months And People Who Do Keep It t five months full, they don’t sell at a loss they sell when there is profit to be had and you will see when it breaks out like all time highs and does a really strong rally. “In terms of adoption, Bitcoin has about the same users as the Internet had in 1997. But Bitcoin is growing faster. The next 4 years on its current path will bring Bitcoin users to 1 billion people, which is the equivalent of 2005 for the Internet. pic.twitter .com/Np9yTR3WkL— Willy Woo (@woonomic) Feb 1, 2021 He also argued that a key indicator for bear markets is usually when “newbs” or new coin holders are in the majority: “The 2018 bear was at its peak new guys who the coins held, and the cycle repeats. Those guys sell, or the ones that don’t become hardened hodlers and sell them at the next rally when it goes even higher. ”
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