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Bitcoin Market Momentum Turns Bullish



The below is from a recent issue of the Deep Dive, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be one of the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now. In today’s Daily Dive, we highlight the Market Realized Gradient metric created by Checkmate, Glassnode’s leading on-chain analyst. The statistic seems to capture the current state of market momentum by comparing price to capital inflow. Here we highlight the 28-day delta gradient that looks at the difference between the price over the past 28 days versus the difference in realized price over the past 28 days with statistical normalization applied. This measures the momentum change in speculative value (price) versus real organic capital inflow (realized price). On interpreting Glassnode’s Delta Gradient: When the Delta Gradient is positive, it indicates that there is an expected upward trend in play that is expected to last as long as the period of the considered oscillator (i.e., 28 day Delta Gradient, suggesting a one to two month uptrend is in play). When the Delta Gradient is negative, it signals the reverse, that a downward trend is in play with a similar expected duration. Since the bitcoin price and market cap move faster than the realized price and realized cap, we can look for times when there is a possible trend reversal in the price that has yet to catch up with the realized price. As a refresher, the realized price of bitcoin is the average price of each coin on the network the last time it was moved, with a current value of $24,069. Detailed bitcoin price data. Detailed bitcoin price data. What we have seen over the past two days is that the 28-day Delta Gradient has reversed positively, indicating that the market will move upwards in the coming month and that there is a potential low in the market in the near term. This shows that the influx into the chain has yet to catch up to the last macro price reversal.
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